Παιδια απλα καποια μηνυματα στην αγγλικη γλωσσα για χρυσο ασημι οικονομια κτλ, οσοι ενδιαφερονται να τα διαβασουν ειναι ολα φρεσκα απο σελιδα που ειμαι μελος επι πληρωμη εδω και καποια χρονια. Αν καποια παιδια ενδιαφερονται και θελουν να τους στελνω μηνυματα αυτου του ειδους μπορουν να μου το πουν να το κανω.
All eyes were on Greece, as has been the case so often of late. The latest…
00:52 Eurozone Finance Ministers agree to give Greece €130B bailout - FT
European diplomats tell the FT that the German and Dutch ministers insisted that private debtholders take larger haircuts; the new deal will see them take 53.5% vs a prior 50%. Greece's debt will be 120.5% of economic output by 2020.
The €130B is to last the country until 2014, and €50B more might be needed through the end of the decade.
The article says the agreement was reached on the heels of a debt-sustainability analysis report that predicted that austerity measures being imposed could condemn Greece to a recession leaving it unable to pay back its debts or attract private investors.
Reference Link: Financial Times (subscription required)
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b5909e86-5c0f-11e1-841c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1msvt7bTx
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Both gold and silver moved up yesterday with the US markets closed for a holiday. They continued to run higher early this morning in London until, you guessed it. The Gold Cartel traders showed up a little earlier than usual and stopped the rally cold when gold printed $1743.
After the brush back, both precious metals continued their run higher. Both were stopped again at their key resistance levels of $1750 and $34. But not for long. Both pivotal price points were taken out after a brief rest stop.
Silver was particularly interesting as it quietly firmed up even as gold was downticking later in the day, surging into new high ground for the trading session.
A theme of mine the past week has been that both gold and silver are SOLD OUT, meaning those investors who might sell, have sold … in a bigger picture sense. There are two different types of "sold out" markets. The first is one in which the price goes straight down, actually going below the price of production sometimes. The selling takes on panic-like conditions. Often this is a market whose fundamentals are beginning to turn very bullish, but they are not understood by the market players as a whole.
My first futures trade was made under such a circumstance. I met the former number two guy at Paramount Pictures, and then CEO of Westinghouse Broadcasting, at the New York Athletic Club. The guy (Dan Ritchie) was one of the most successful futures traders ever … mostly with Refco, which eventually became MF Global.
After listening to Dan talk about why pork bellies was such a good risk/reward trade, I bought one contract. The price had been collapsing with that panic selling I mentioned, fueling the massive straight downturn. After the first day, I lost half my margin money, as the market continued to tank. Bad idea I thought. NOPE! Pork bellies then went limit up the next nine out of ten days. My broker could not believe it. That hooked me into futures trading and I became a futures broker.
The other type of sold out market is less dramatic and is the sort of one I believe we have now in gold and silver. Both precious metals have been holding above their key support at $1700 and $33. Each time The Gold Cartel drives the prices of these precious metals down, they bounce back. They do so because the cabal selling isn’t able to attract enough other sellers to continue the drive lower. The hoard of selling is over with and the prices bounce back.
The fact that both gold and silver have leaped off their key support levels and now cleared key resistance points adds a significant amount of credence to the "sold out" notion.
Hopefully this "sold out" notion will hold as true as the KILLER MOVE concept was at the end of last year. MIDAS retro time:
December 30 – Gold $1566 up $20.90– Silver $27.91 up 64 cents
Killer Moves Pave Way For Spectacular 2012
The Gold Cartel knows exactly what they are doing, as also mentioned above. They know spec longs are on edge after their bashing the markets in the first place and decided to do a finish them off effort during a holiday trading period which is normally quiet and with investors paying less attention for the holidays. So, they lined up a KILLER MOVE to the downside to wipe out the last weak hand standers in the gold and silver markets. The Gold Cartel set up the killer move with their attacks and put so much pressure on spec longs it caused panic selling in gold and silver over the past three trading sessions. There was NO outside market activity to account for the slaughter. It is that simple … as simple as it has been painful.
A KILLER MOVE is one that pushes a price below a major support area, which causes long standing spec/share investors to exit their positions. Once they are wiped out, the market recovers. In essence the killer move raid sets up a bottom. We will need more of a recovery to ascertain this killer move notion, but it has as much a sign of one as I have ever seen. Let’s examine the technicals in the shares, gold and silver to put some further analysis into it…
*First the HUI:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=HUI&sid=16794&time=8I have been talking about the HUI putting in a huge, trading range base for many months. Instead, the HUI broke through all support at the bottom of the range on Wednesday and then reversed course yesterday to challenge the bottom of that range. Today it continued to challenge that bottom. A close above today’s high around 505 ought to give validity to that KILLER MOVE notion, which does not have to be conclusive on day one.
* Daily gold:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/Gold took out is low made in late September, the last time The Gold Cartel made its move and now has reversed course. That is what a killer move is all about. A close above $1600, a prior key technical area, is needed to give us more confirmation of the KM.
*Daily silver:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV_/Silver has been a mess ever since JP Morgan organized their assault when silver approached $50 in the spring. Thanks to JPM we have seen several blitzings to the downside which have been more than brutal. This time silver challenged its late September low, but did not take it out, and has now reversed course too, at least for the moment. It is not surprising silver failed to take out its low because its price has been so savaged time and time again these past 8 months. There had to be a number of buyers (including the bums themselves) waiting in the wings ready to pounce all over this fall, with the silver fundamentals being so bullish…
***
The gold open interest fell 885 contracts to 439,791. The silver open interest dropped 308 contracts to 106,962.
Here we go again ... by the close of trading gold was up around 2%, which is most The Gold Cartel allows on any given day under its "excitement" parameters.
If there was any special factor lifting gold and silver today it was crude oil trading up the way it is, breaching $105 per barrel to the upside, a new contract high. One of the hot topics these days in economic forums is the rising price of gasoline and what it will mean for our economy when, and if, the price takes out $4 per gallon…
Daily crude oil
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CL_/There was some other talk that gold was also getting a boost from China's decision to lower its reserve requirements for banks. The People's Bank of China announced over the weekend that it was knocking down its reserve-requirement ratio by 0.5%, a move aimed at boosting lending.
Gold has broken out from a pretty tight pennant formation…
Daily gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/Silver has really done nothing for weeks, but appears to be in the process of completing a substantial base. A move above $35 per ounce ought to propel the price into rocket mode…
Daily silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV_/Speaking of silver, RR yesterday:
As a percentage of price, the Bollinger Bands on Hi-Ho have arguably never been so tight,..
It looks very likely that a monster move is rolling down the pipe for Silver in the very near future,
The Bollinger Bands in the last week or so have crimped in aggressively, So much so that they are now almost certainly as tight in percentage terms against price as they have been throughout the duration of this entire bull cycle!
To suggest the thrusters are burning, is to label Everest as quite a large mountain!
Rich (Live from 'The Bridge of the Silver Rocket Ship')
The yield of the 10 yr T note is 2.04%.
The CRB rose 5.07 to 322.46.
Crude oil not only took out $105 per barrel, but $106. It finished up at $106.12.
Early gold commentary in the media had it rising in part due to a weaker dollar. Not true ... the dollar rose .14 to 79.11.
The euro rose .0033 to 1.3244. The pound fell .0045 to 1.5783. The yen lost .09 to 79.70.
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
The DOW closed up 16 to 12,965 and the DOG fell 3 to 2948.
Bill H:
Iran cuts oil to Britain, France.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/19/us-iran-oil-europe-idUSTRE81I07W20120219
To all; have you ever seen how a typical "school yard fight" gets started? A little bit of profanity, a few insults, then followed by a push or a shove... and the fight is on. Sounds an awful lot like the current status between Iran and The U.S. lately. Some may say that the U.S. wants Iranian oil, others that "war is good for a weak economy" and some who are "really out there" believe that we need an "event" that can be pointed at to explain a bad economy. All of these theories probably have at least some merit but I do not believe they are foremost reasons for sabre rattling and the high probability of conflict.
Recent history has shown that both Sadaam Hussein and Gadhafi either threatened to or actually did oil transactions that excluded use of the Dollar for settlement. Shortly thereafter, the rest is history and so are these two leaders. Were they "bad guys"? Of course they were but I believe that their "choice" of currency could not be tolerated. You see, THE biggest global demand for Dollars since 1972 or '73 has been to settle trade, mainly that of oil. Iran announced the same thing more than 2 years ago, they sidestepped the Dollar and proposed using the Euro instead. This amounted to a "schoolyard push" by the Iranians but not one that could be ignored. This is very very high risk "diplomacy".
Fast forward to recent months and we now see Russia, China, India and even Brazil cutting deals amonst themselves to settle trade without the Dollar. These nations are too many and too powerful to be kept "in line" which will ultimately lead to the Dollar's demise. Over this past weekend, Iran announced the termination of oil business with both Britain and France amounting to an actual punch. Does an actual conflict start between the U.S/Israel and Iran? I do not know but I do believe the odds are now very high and higher than any time in the past. Along with a potential "oil grab", benefits of a wartime economy and even Iranian Gold as a prize, higher oil prices are needed now! That's right, higher oil prices mean more demand for Dollars. Damn the inflation statistics, cost of living rises etc., I believe higher oil prices are the only immediate answer to the waning demand for Dollars.
Call this conspiratorial or whatever, a war with Iran might kick the can another 6 months down the road, maybe even more. Financially, it has now boiled down to "buying time". Mathematically there is NO possible solution to the fiat/Ponzi collapse that is coming. Extending the final day(s) is the only possible option and a war with Iran unfortunately (c)ould buy some time. This option might also boomerang however. As weak as the global economy is, much higher oil prices could certainly kick the can into the ditch instead of down the road. Most of you know that I have been forecasting a "reset" to the global monetary system, a war with Iran and an "oil shock" could certainly be a catalyst to this.
I do want to mention that the Iranian response to the coming July oil sanctions/embargo seems logical as to "timing". The "East" now sees the "West" as weakened financially. All they have to do is watch the European Bozo's fumbling around or the financial lunacy coming out of Washington. They have been buying Gold for several years and negotiating non Dollar trade agreements as preparation. Business is war and war is business, foreigners have sat back and watched us bankrupt ourselves since 2001. Iran has surely already gotten some ink on it's oil contracts from elsewhere to shut off Britain and France, they are not stupid. This "perception" of weakness may be the scariest part of all!
A conflict with Iran will be nothing like Iraq 1 or 2 nor Afghanistan, do not let headlines of actual hostilities occur with your mindset of going home from work to watch it on TV. If war does occur, life as we knew it will be a thing of the past. There are too many weak links in the financial system and too many variables (derivatives, etc.) exist, knowing ahead of time how this will play out (even by the "planners") is impossible. Planning to fend for yourself is and always will be the best course of action even in good (normal) times. Times and circumstances have changed, do not be complacent if real punches are thrown! Regards, Bill H.
21 February 2012
Modern Monetary Theory Explained Simply
It is often difficult to get a clear and simple definition or summation of what Modern Monetary Theory is, and what its adherents actually believe.
This is because some of its proponents tend to speak disparagingly and condescendingly to those who ask what it is that they believe. And they do not like to answer simple questions, preferring to engage in lengthy theoretical explanations for the benefit of the unenlightened.
But at least one person I respect seems to believe in this theory, so I have continued to spend some effort to get to the bottom of it, to find out what this theory is, and how it is similar or different from other monetary theories. What makes it modern?
At last there is a Modern Monetary Theory Wiki. Although it is relatively new and underpopulated, it does at least put forward the key tenets of this theory in simple language.
Here are some extended quotes that I think cut to the heart of what MMT is. And it is about what I expected it to be. You can judge what it is for yourself…
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/02/modern-monetary-theory-explained-simply.html
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Dave from Denver:
Quick Update
Gold represents a little less than 1% of the total value of global investments [stocks, bonds, money markets]. Think about what will happen if that percentage moves up to 2 or 3%. In 1968 it was 5%. In 1980 at the last peak in gold it was 3%. - Felix Zulauf, Swiss money manager
Busy trading today. Wanted to unload a few points of irritation. It was reported locally that Michelle Obama spent the long weekend in Aspen with her daughters, courtesy of the Taxpayers, of course. I don't recall the Obamas ever spending time in expensive resorts when they had to pay for it themselves. Of course, until Barack became a national politician, he barely had a pot to piss in (like Clinton). What really irritated me was the report in the Denver Post that the Aspen Sheriff "donated" several patrolmen to help with security. I'm sure that "donation" cost the Federal taxpayers a couple hundred thousand dollars. By the way, Michelle looked like a total dork in her ski outfit in the picture that was published in the Denver Post. I wonder how many of the people who voted for Obama could actually afford to spend even one night in Aspen...
10 of the 15 richest counties, including the richest, are located near Washington, DC, in Maryland and Virginia LINK. Four of the top five counties. The standard of measurement is household income. This makes sense because the primary source of "household income" in the DC region is Government contracts and Government employee payroll and, of course SuperPac lobbyists/lawyer pay. This factoid underscores even further the discrepancy between those who live off the Government and those who try to make a living privately. I'm sure people who live in Fairfield County in Connecticut (Greenwhich) or Santa Clara County in California (high tech/venture capital) are surprised by this report. But please note the standard of measurement is "income" and not "wealth." The people who build and prosper from creating wealth are a completely different breed from the piss-ant sycophants and scum who prey on wealth by living off of Government largess.
It's Big Government/Banking that is sucking the wealth of this country dry and ultimately will be what causes The Collapse. Speaking of funding Government largess, the Treasury issued $35 billion in new 2-yr. Treasury notes today, taking the "official" Treasury debt load up to $15.4 trillion. I say "official" because this number does not include some $7 trillion of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac debt - I still don't know why this isn't included - nor does it include "special" Treasury paper issued, such as "IOU collateral" to entities like the social security trust ($2.5 trillion last I read). This $15.4 trillion represents 101% of officially calculated GDP. But if the manipulations were stripped away, I guarantee that the real number would be more like 120% of GDP - just like Greece...
***
U.S. economic news:
DJ Chicago Fed's Activity Index Dips In January After Big Revision
Tue Feb 21 08:30:07 2012 EST
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Key U.S. output indicators moderated in January though still point to some inflationary pressure ahead, according to the latest National Activity Index from the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank.
The bank said Tuesday that the index dipped to 0.22 in January after a big revision up to 0.54 in December, though it's the first time in a year that the indicator has stayed in positive territory for two straight months.
December's rebound in industrial and manufacturing production turned out to be stronger than anticipated, ahead of the seasonal slowdown associated with end-of-year holidays and the Chinese lunar new year.
The more representative three-month moving average for the Chicago Fed index improved to 0.14 from 0.06, its highest level since last March, and a sign of "limited inflationary pressure," according to the bank.
A positive reading for activity index points to above-trend growth, and 48 of the 85 indicators used in the compendium of available and forecast data improved sequentially in January from the previous month.
Production indicators were again the key swing factor in the monthly change, with their contribution to the index swinging to -0.11 from 0.54 in December.
The sales, orders and inventories segment rose slightly to 0.03 after a flat prior-month contribution, and employment indicators also continued to lift the index.
The contribution from consumption and housing indicators remained negative, though, improved slightly to -0.27 in January from -0.30 in December.
The index was compiled using data available at Feb. 16.
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Gallup Finds Unemployment Climbing to Nine Percent in February
By Matt Cover
February 20, 2012
(CNSNews.com) – Unemployment in the U.S. rose to nine percent in mid-February, up from 8.3 percent a month earlier, according to a new Gallup survey. The polling company said this suggests that it is "premature" to assume the economy will not feature prominently in the 2012 election season.
Gallup figures typically provide an indication of what the government will report at the end of the month.
"The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February," Gallup said in its mid-month unemployment survey, released on February 17. "The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January."
Gallup said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would likely report a rise in the official unemployment rate in early March, when it publishes its February figures.
Gallup’s mid-month figures are not seasonally adjusted, and so may not predict the official unemployment rate precisely. However, because Gallup and BLS both conduct their unemployment surveys at the same time – in the middle of the month – Gallup’s early figures can provide a barometer of where the official rate is likely headed.
"Gallup’s mid-month unemployment reading, based on the 30 days ending Feb. 15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on the first Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in February," Gallup said.
The survey also found that "underemployment" – those unemployed and those working part-time because full-time jobs are unavailable – rose to 19 percent, up from the 18.7 percent Gallup found in January.
Gallup said its report reflected a continuing trend of weakness in U.S. labor markets, marking a "sharp deterioration" in job market conditions.
"Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January."
That decline was consistent with an economy struggling with weak growth and rising energy prices, Gallup said, making it "premature" to think that the economy would not be a major factor in November’s presidential elections.
"Further, it suggests that it is premature to assume the condition of the economy will not remain a major issue for Americans both financially and politically in 2012."
Gallup’s survey is a random telephone tracking survey of 30,000 adults conducted through February 15, whereas BLS’s survey is done over one week in the middle of each month and surveys 60,000 households. BLS adjusts its results for seasonal changes in the job market – regular changes in the labor market that occur every year and aren’t reflective of the demand for labor or the supply of available jobs, such as temporary hiring around the holiday shopping season.
Since Gallup’s figures are not seasonally adjusted, the 0.7 percent rise in unemployment tracked in its survey almost certainly includes some of the seasonal factors that typically contribute to unemployment after the holiday shopping season.
Nonetheless, Gallup predicted that BLS would find an increase in unemployment in February.
"Although the government seasonally adjusts the U.S. unemployment rate, and the workforce participation rate could decline – both of which could drive down its unemployment rate – it still seems likely that the BLS will report an increase in the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February."
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-finds-unemployment-climbing-nine-percent-FebruaryCNSNews.com is not funded by the government like NPR. CNSNews.com is not funded by the government like PBS.
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World economic news:
07:55 Macro Update: Eurozone sovereign debt crisis
Greece:
Where things stand: Greece and the Eurogroup reached an agreement (see the Eurogroup statement on Greek rescue package) on a second bailout package that will total €130B and aims to reduce Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio to 120.5% by 2020. The statement noted that ensuring debt sustainability and restoring competitiveness are the main goals of the new program, adding that its success hinges critically on its thorough implementation by Greece.
Tougher terms: The deal calls for an "enhanced and permanent" presence for a European Commission task force to ensure that Greece implements the austerity and reform measures mandated in the deal. It also includes the establishment of an escrow account that will ensure that Greece always holds three months worth of bond payments. While the escrow account will be temporary, Greece has agreed to change its constitution to prioritize debt repayment.
PSI: Private sector bondholders will take losses of 53.5% on the nominal value of their bonds, up from the 50% originally expected. For every €100B in bonds tendered in the swap, bondholders will receive new Greek bonds with a face value of €31.5 and short-term EFSF bonds with a face value of €15. The swap, which is expected to launch on 8-Mar and be completed three days later, will reduce Greece's debt load by ~€107B. The new bonds will have maturities of between 11 and 30 years, with an average coupon of 3.65% over the full 30-year horizon. The coupon will be 2% until 2014, 3% between 2015 and 2020 and 4.3% thereafter (see the Private Sector Creditor Statement on Greece PSI Deal).
CACs: The Greek Finance Ministry said in a statement today that it will submit a draft bill to parliament that will introduce a collective action clause (CAC) into eligible GGBs. The statement noted that "If passed, this law will be available to be used in the implementation of the PSI (private sector involvement) transaction if necessary to achieve pary the 26 October 2011 Euro Summit Statement." Recall that S&P has said that such a move would constitute a selective defau
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